Cito+ Market Insights, April 21, Week 16

Cito+ Market Insights is a Cito+ format, published once a week, digging deep into on-chain data trying to answer the question "Where are we in the cycle?".

Published every Monday on Cito+.

Fear and Greed Index: 39

• Up +8 from past week (31).

• Still in the fear zone but slowly grinding higher towards neutral territory.

• We have been trending below 50 since late February.

• It will be key to hold the 25 level to avoid dropping back into extreme fear.

• Meanwhile, the stock market is still in the extreme fear zone (21).

BTC Dominance: 64%

• Bitcoin dominance keeps grinding higher, up 1% week-over-week.

• However, there's a strong resistance level around the 64% mark.

• We've been trading in the 63%-64% range for almost three weeks now.

• The larger upwards trend is still intact.

• Many experts call for a continuation of the BTC dominance trend, as long as uncertainty prevails in the markets and people remain risk-off.

Altcoin Market Cap (ex BTC & ETH): $774B

• Flat week over week.

• We're about to break out from a 4-month downward trend.

• For the first time, we've made a higher low.

• Still waiting for the breakout to be confirmed by making a higher high.

• Breaking out of this downward channel would be a bullish signal and could suggest the altcoin market is ready to run again.

Altcoin Season Index: 18

• Up +4 points from last week (14).

• It's the fourth week that we're in a clear BTC season (below 25 points).

• Be wary, Bitcoin seasons can last for several months, like the one from early April to late July 2023.

• Almost all alts are bleeding compared to BTC at this stage.

• 100% of the top 50 coins are now down over the past 90 days.

Funding Rate Heatmap

Funding rates have turned slightly positive over the past week.

• Longs are paying shorts for major coins like BTC and ETH.

• Altcoins show a more mixed picture.

• Coins like SUI, BNB, and TRX are displaying negative funding rates.

• All the bullishness is gone—no yellow or orange dots on the map.

Crypto Apps - App Store Ranking

No crypto retail interest as of now.

• There's no crypto app in the top 10 Finance Apps in the US.

• Robinhood is at rank 16 (was #6 last week).

• Coinbase is at rank 21 (was #16 last week, currently #398 in overall ranking).

• Moonshot and Phantom Wallet are both ranked over 500 in overall apps.

ETF Flows

• $13.7M in weekly inflows for BTC.

• $32.3M in weekly outflows for ETH.

• First week in April with positive BTC ETF flows.

• Saylor might have been the major driving force behind it.

• Strategy acquired 6,556 BTC for approximately $555M last week.

• ETH ETFs, on the other hand, saw another week of consistent outflows.

Weekly DEX Volumes: $48B

• Down 22% week-over-week.

• Onchain trading activity is cooling off after last week's spike.

• Still, there's a positive trend since the lows in mid-March.

• It takes time, but onchain activity is slowly recovering.

• DEX vs. CEX dominance: 20.84% vs. 26.74% last week.

Stable Coins Flows

• Market Cap: $234.7B

• Up $1B week-over-week (0.4%)

• USDT Dominance: 61.8%

• New stablecoins continue to be issued on-chain.

• There's a strong case for the stablecoin market cap to grind higher for the rest of the year.

• With countries like China no longer purchasing US bonds, others—such as the Fed or stablecoin issuers—need to step in.

Summary:

• Market sentiment is slowly recovering.

• BTC dominance continues to climb higher (64%).

• We're still in a full-blown BTC season.

• The altcoin market (TOTAL3) is nearing a breakout from its downward channel.

• Funding rates for major coins have turned slightly positive.

• First week in a while with positive BTC ETF flows.

• DEX volumes are down week-over-week, but up month-over-month.

• Retail activity remains dormant.

  
  

That's it for this week. We hope you got some value out of it.

If you wish to receive this report once a week directly to your email inbox, join us at Cito+, a private community of die hard Cosmos alpha seekers, DeFi users and NFT lovers.

Disclaimer

This article is intended to educate readers about certain topics and should not be considered financial advice in any way.